Comment by – February 3, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Stock Market Strategy Blog Dr. Warren Huang
February 3rd, 2008US market tracking Blog Dr. Warren Huang
February 3rd, 2008It is premature for US markets to use rate cuts, Microsoft-Yahoo merger, ExxonMobil to bottom fishing for financial, construction stocks.
This housing price slump will continue into summer, despite rate cuts.
Most mega merger at peak of asset bubbles facing burst
and lead to huge loss, repeat 2000 IT bubble burst,
Look at CSCO, Citi, AOL endless lists.
US dollar strength is supported by rising oil, commodities prices and soaring inflation, eventual rate hike, EURO rate cuts due to slowdown, supporting near term dollar weakness.
Global construction demand will be drag by US housing
price slump resulted economic recession and global stock market decline resulted housing bubble bursts in China credit tightening, India, UK.
China recent snow damage will recover easily.
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
This housing price slump will continue into summer, despite rate cuts.
Most mega merger at peak of asset bubbles facing burst
and lead to huge loss, repeat 2000 IT bubble burst,
Look at CSCO, Citi, AOL endless lists.
US dollar strength is supported by rising oil, commodities prices and soaring inflation, eventual rate hike, EURO rate cuts due to slowdown, supporting near term dollar weakness.
Global construction demand will be drag by US housing
price slump resulted economic recession and global stock market decline resulted housing bubble bursts in China credit tightening, India, UK.
China recent snow damage will recover easily.
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
Comment by on Wall Street Journal Markte Beat Blog- February 2, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Currency Market Blog Dr. Warren Huang
February 3rd, 2008Dollar at the cross road, thcross current of soarig oil, commodity prices ,US inflation and recession resulted rate cuts continue.
Dollar will regaining its strength, this summer when current rate cuts series stop, switch to rake hikes fighting inflation
EURO peaking out at 1.59, Yen at 103, most other currency already peaking out
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/currency.html
Economics Blog inflation control
September 24th, 2007It does not decision makeing by groups or single person, if we are using the wrong inflation models.
What we needed is a sound inflation model which predict
and forecst the future inflation.
Our core inflation rate( exculde food , energy) set at 2 % are misleading the economy
it lagged 6 month behind the real economy.
That is why Greenspan over optimistics about the infaltion, ignoring hosuing, equitities, comodities price bubble ,raise rate 17 time still chasing the inflation, excessive rate cuts resulted hosuing and stock markets bubble burst since 1987
I presented my asset based inflation model this Princeton Econometric peoferssor and Nobel Economic prize winner Engle June this year on Peking University conference
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
What we needed is a sound inflation model which predict
and forecst the future inflation.
Our core inflation rate( exculde food , energy) set at 2 % are misleading the economy
it lagged 6 month behind the real economy.
That is why Greenspan over optimistics about the infaltion, ignoring hosuing, equitities, comodities price bubble ,raise rate 17 time still chasing the inflation, excessive rate cuts resulted hosuing and stock markets bubble burst since 1987
I presented my asset based inflation model this Princeton Econometric peoferssor and Nobel Economic prize winner Engle June this year on Peking University conference
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by – September 24, 2007 at 7:44 pm
Market beat Turbulence ahead Dr. Warren Hunag
September 24th, 2007I warned on Wall Street Journal Blogs before market speculation on Fed rate cut, that any rate cut will repeat 1998 and 1989 , just delay the already serious housing bubble burst, will be followed by deeper recession.
Fed 50 point cut on top of Dow Jones stock index near its peak, oil, commodities prices at its all time high this inflationary pressure situation is much worse than 1998, 1989, with 7 trillion dollar housing
price gain wealth speculating in housing and stock market,
it will be very tough for Fed to cool it off, it will blow the bubble bigger, as coastal area high end housing prices soared 40- 150 % in July. even Greenspan agree that this house bubble is tough for any central banks to manage, China raise 5 time rates, 7 times bank deposit ratio, still fail to contain the soaring housing and stock price bubble.
both Benanke and market are facing turbulent period ahead.
details can be found onwww.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 24, 2007 at 11:16 am
Market beat blog Fed rate cut timing
September 20th, 2007Fed ’s rate cut is little to early and too much, If stock , commodity prices made 20 % correction, housing prices plunge another 15 %, economic cool off a bit,will be much safer, have more room and time for expansionary policy.
we are already at its peak stock index, housinng , energy, feedgrain, metal prices all at all time high, even money supply growth is doubled from year ago ( 3.5 % to 6.8 % in Aug. we are very much in 1998 LTCM bail out, went inot 1999-2000 bubble burst.
details can be found
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
we are already at its peak stock index, housinng , energy, feedgrain, metal prices all at all time high, even money supply growth is doubled from year ago ( 3.5 % to 6.8 % in Aug. we are very much in 1998 LTCM bail out, went inot 1999-2000 bubble burst.
details can be found
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by – September 20, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Global EconomY Blog US Fed rate cut
September 19th, 2007Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blot Sept. 19, 2007
My financial and industrial econometric model relating housing prices and mortgage loan default to money supply, mortgage rate, stock index, housing prices, unemployment, inflation, fed fund rate warned Fed 2003,in Singapore, Shanghai Euro-events QFII executive conference that US China facing housing bubbles,
and credit tightening,
Fed underestimate oil price, commodity and housing demand, prices, stocks prices bubble, use core inflation (exclude energy, food) over emphasize cut unemployment rate (which is inflationary) to delay rate hike to June 2004 with 17 rate hikes at 25 base point at each time , however Fed’s ignoring commodities, housing, stock asset prices
bubbles, leave 30 yr mortgage rate at 6 % all time low, despite 17 rate hikes, are the root causes of housing bubble,
and Bernanke leave rate un-change in June last year too soon, to let the stock market speculation Dow JOne up 40 % further drive up housing prices resulted excess wealth gain, excess liquidity, resulte sub-prime problem.
m2 money supply growth soared from 3.5 % June 2006 to July 6.18 2007 and 6.68 % Aug 2007 after 100 billion cash injection, Now 50 base point cut will further inflate the bubble and inflation.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
and credit tightening,
Fed underestimate oil price, commodity and housing demand, prices, stocks prices bubble, use core inflation (exclude energy, food) over emphasize cut unemployment rate (which is inflationary) to delay rate hike to June 2004 with 17 rate hikes at 25 base point at each time , however Fed’s ignoring commodities, housing, stock asset prices
bubbles, leave 30 yr mortgage rate at 6 % all time low, despite 17 rate hikes, are the root causes of housing bubble,
and Bernanke leave rate un-change in June last year too soon, to let the stock market speculation Dow JOne up 40 % further drive up housing prices resulted excess wealth gain, excess liquidity, resulte sub-prime problem.
m2 money supply growth soared from 3.5 % June 2006 to July 6.18 2007 and 6.68 % Aug 2007 after 100 billion cash injection, Now 50 base point cut will further inflate the bubble and inflation.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by OSA pioneer – September 19, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Housing Crisis Blog Dr Warren Huang
September 1st, 2007Housing Crisis,Housing Prices, Inflation and Fed PolicyFed does not response to housing prices soared 300 % in coastal ares of NY, California make affordability drop from 60 % to 40 %,and pushed oil, metals, commodities price soared 300 %, CPI inflation up 4.5 %, but Fed watched core inflation ( exclude food and energy) still below 2 % now it response to 20 % housing price correction by cutting rates, stimulated overheated equities, housing demand( which is normal supply demand relation)
Fed missing link between housing, equities price bubble and CPI inflation.
by maintaining stocks, housing
bubble growth, the trillion wealth gain it drown Fed , make it hard to manupulate like current China twin asset bubbles, will reach huge bubble bursts, with or without
central bank control, that
deep recession following will be horrible.
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/riskm.html
causes, onsset, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis, asset bubble crisis
Energy Price Tracking Blog Dr. Warren Huang
August 31st, 2007August 31, 2007, 10:24 am
Crude Surges Over $74
Posted by Tim Annett
Roshanak Taghavi reports on today’s action in the energy markets:
Crude-oil futures rose above $74 a barrel Friday on heightened concerns that a new tropical storm could be developing in the Atlantic Ocean and an upsurge in U.S. equities. The front-month October light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 86 cents, or 1.2%, at $74.22 a barrel. October Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was up 93 cents at $72.83 a barrel.
Traders were paying extra attention Friday to four low pressure systems that have developed in the Atlantic basin, which could develop into a strong storm or hurricane. Atlantic hurricanes have the potential to enter the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and wreak havoc with energy installations there.
Crude oil and gasoline futures have been extremely volatile since Wednesday, when the U.S. Department of Energy reported gasoline inventories fell by a larger-than-expected 3.6 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 24. U.S. gasoline stocks now cover just 20 days of demand, the lowest level on record, according to the DOE’s Energy Information Administration. Expectations that gasoline supplies will tighten even more during the U.S. Labor Day holiday, when many Americans hit the road to attend celebrations and take vacations, has also added to traders’ concerns.
“We are maintaining a view that any strength in the crude oil or heating oil going forward will be driven almost entirely by a tight gasoline market,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. in a research note. “We are still not ruling out a strong expiration today as the combination of near record low gasoline supply cover and a thin holiday trade could provide a recipe for a volatile session as today’s trade proceeds.”
Nymex September reformulated-gasoline blendstock was up 1.03 cents, or 0.5%, at $2.0904 a gallon. September heating oil was up 2.46 cents, or 1.2%, at $2.0530 a gallon.
I predicted on this blog last Sept that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag into recession and global stock market into bear correction, with banking finance, housing stocks plunge 50- 70 %, IT , high flier GOOG, AAPL, PetroChina, GS plunge 50 %.
all US global ETF inlucing BRIC down 30 %, only gold, ultra financial, real estate short fund gain 20- 30 %
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/A130-30wksp.htm
and
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog