I have been able to track, simulate accurately ahead of the last 20 years root causes, onset,identification, growth, spread, early warning of Stocks, commodities, housing bubbles by proactive, structural neural net models.
It usually orinnated from excessive rate, tax cuts resulted demand, pushed prices
higher, and aided by hot money
( related to strong currency speculation strong dollar lead to May 2007, 118 billion capital inflow into US market),lead to over 100 % gain within one year, this wealth gain is them spread into stocks, housing markets wealth, created huge excessive liquidity resulted bubble accelerated growth, hard for any central banks rate hikes to handle credit tightening, ( took Fed 17 rate hikes)
eventualy bubble burst, with or without central macroeconometric control and deep recession, like Japanes style recession.
I warned hundred Singapore, Shanghai banking , finance CEO, executives Nov. 2003 on ASian/China finance, capital market conference that US/China housing bubble facing credit tightening from 2004 till 2007.
US 17 rate hikes did delate housing bubble 2005 with money supply growth reduced from 7 % to 3.5 %,
However, Market analysts speculate rate cuts after Fed stoped rate hike 2006, drive money supply from 4 % back to 6.2 % in July 2007 lead to housing bubble growth with
housing prices up almost 100 % in coastal area, up 40 %
in July 2007, in New York , SF financial district and Silicon Valley IT center, benefited by Dow JOnes, Nasdaq soared 40 % gain, finance, IT stock up 400 %
These models tracks, simulated the interaction of curency , wealth effect gain and monetary policy impact on
the identification, deflation,
inflation of bubbe and burst
details can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
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It usually orinnated from excessive rate, tax cuts resulted demand, pushed prices
higher, and aided by hot money
( related to strong currency speculation strong dollar lead to May 2007, 118 billion capital inflow into US market),lead to over 100 % gain within one year, this wealth gain is them spread into stocks, housing markets wealth, created huge excessive liquidity resulted bubble accelerated growth, hard for any central banks rate hikes to handle credit tightening, ( took Fed 17 rate hikes)
eventualy bubble burst, with or without central macroeconometric control and deep recession, like Japanes style recession.
I warned hundred Singapore, Shanghai banking , finance CEO, executives Nov. 2003 on ASian/China finance, capital market conference that US/China housing bubble facing credit tightening from 2004 till 2007.
US 17 rate hikes did delate housing bubble 2005 with money supply growth reduced from 7 % to 3.5 %,
However, Market analysts speculate rate cuts after Fed stoped rate hike 2006, drive money supply from 4 % back to 6.2 % in July 2007 lead to housing bubble growth with
housing prices up almost 100 % in coastal area, up 40 %
in July 2007, in New York , SF financial district and Silicon Valley IT center, benefited by Dow JOnes, Nasdaq soared 40 % gain, finance, IT stock up 400 %
These models tracks, simulated the interaction of curency , wealth effect gain and monetary policy impact on
the identification, deflation,
inflation of bubbe and burst
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/riskm.html