Comment by – September 24, 2007 at 7:44 pm
Archive for September, 2007
Economics Blog inflation control
Monday, September 24th, 2007Market beat Turbulence ahead Dr. Warren Hunag
Monday, September 24th, 2007I warned on Wall Street Journal Blogs before market speculation on Fed rate cut, that any rate cut will repeat 1998 and 1989 , just delay the already serious housing bubble burst, will be followed by deeper recession.
Fed 50 point cut on top of Dow Jones stock index near its peak, oil, commodities prices at its all time high this inflationary pressure situation is much worse than 1998, 1989, with 7 trillion dollar housing
price gain wealth speculating in housing and stock market,
it will be very tough for Fed to cool it off, it will blow the bubble bigger, as coastal area high end housing prices soared 40- 150 % in July. even Greenspan agree that this house bubble is tough for any central banks to manage, China raise 5 time rates, 7 times bank deposit ratio, still fail to contain the soaring housing and stock price bubble.
both Benanke and market are facing turbulent period ahead.
details can be found onwww.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 24, 2007 at 11:16 am
Market beat blog Fed rate cut timing
Thursday, September 20th, 2007Fed ’s rate cut is little to early and too much, If stock , commodity prices made 20 % correction, housing prices plunge another 15 %, economic cool off a bit,will be much safer, have more room and time for expansionary policy.
we are already at its peak stock index, housinng , energy, feedgrain, metal prices all at all time high, even money supply growth is doubled from year ago ( 3.5 % to 6.8 % in Aug. we are very much in 1998 LTCM bail out, went inot 1999-2000 bubble burst.
details can be found
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
we are already at its peak stock index, housinng , energy, feedgrain, metal prices all at all time high, even money supply growth is doubled from year ago ( 3.5 % to 6.8 % in Aug. we are very much in 1998 LTCM bail out, went inot 1999-2000 bubble burst.
details can be found
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by – September 20, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Global EconomY Blog US Fed rate cut
Wednesday, September 19th, 2007Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blot Sept. 19, 2007
My financial and industrial econometric model relating housing prices and mortgage loan default to money supply, mortgage rate, stock index, housing prices, unemployment, inflation, fed fund rate warned Fed 2003,in Singapore, Shanghai Euro-events QFII executive conference that US China facing housing bubbles,
and credit tightening,
Fed underestimate oil price, commodity and housing demand, prices, stocks prices bubble, use core inflation (exclude energy, food) over emphasize cut unemployment rate (which is inflationary) to delay rate hike to June 2004 with 17 rate hikes at 25 base point at each time , however Fed’s ignoring commodities, housing, stock asset prices
bubbles, leave 30 yr mortgage rate at 6 % all time low, despite 17 rate hikes, are the root causes of housing bubble,
and Bernanke leave rate un-change in June last year too soon, to let the stock market speculation Dow JOne up 40 % further drive up housing prices resulted excess wealth gain, excess liquidity, resulte sub-prime problem.
m2 money supply growth soared from 3.5 % June 2006 to July 6.18 2007 and 6.68 % Aug 2007 after 100 billion cash injection, Now 50 base point cut will further inflate the bubble and inflation.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
and credit tightening,
Fed underestimate oil price, commodity and housing demand, prices, stocks prices bubble, use core inflation (exclude energy, food) over emphasize cut unemployment rate (which is inflationary) to delay rate hike to June 2004 with 17 rate hikes at 25 base point at each time , however Fed’s ignoring commodities, housing, stock asset prices
bubbles, leave 30 yr mortgage rate at 6 % all time low, despite 17 rate hikes, are the root causes of housing bubble,
and Bernanke leave rate un-change in June last year too soon, to let the stock market speculation Dow JOne up 40 % further drive up housing prices resulted excess wealth gain, excess liquidity, resulte sub-prime problem.
m2 money supply growth soared from 3.5 % June 2006 to July 6.18 2007 and 6.68 % Aug 2007 after 100 billion cash injection, Now 50 base point cut will further inflate the bubble and inflation.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by OSA pioneer – September 19, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Housing Crisis Blog Dr Warren Huang
Saturday, September 1st, 2007Housing Crisis,Housing Prices, Inflation and Fed PolicyFed does not response to housing prices soared 300 % in coastal ares of NY, California make affordability drop from 60 % to 40 %,and pushed oil, metals, commodities price soared 300 %, CPI inflation up 4.5 %, but Fed watched core inflation ( exclude food and energy) still below 2 % now it response to 20 % housing price correction by cutting rates, stimulated overheated equities, housing demand( which is normal supply demand relation)
Fed missing link between housing, equities price bubble and CPI inflation.
by maintaining stocks, housing
bubble growth, the trillion wealth gain it drown Fed , make it hard to manupulate like current China twin asset bubbles, will reach huge bubble bursts, with or without
central bank control, that
deep recession following will be horrible.
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/riskm.html
causes, onsset, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis, asset bubble crisis
What we needed is a sound inflation model which predict
and forecst the future inflation.
Our core inflation rate( exculde food , energy) set at 2 % are misleading the economy
it lagged 6 month behind the real economy.
That is why Greenspan over optimistics about the infaltion, ignoring hosuing, equitities, comodities price bubble ,raise rate 17 time still chasing the inflation, excessive rate cuts resulted hosuing and stock markets bubble burst since 1987
I presented my asset based inflation model this Princeton Econometric peoferssor and Nobel Economic prize winner Engle June this year on Peking University conference
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html