Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blot Sept. 19, 2007
My financial and industrial econometric model relating housing prices and mortgage loan default to money supply, mortgage rate, stock index, housing prices, unemployment, inflation, fed fund rate warned Fed 2003,in Singapore, Shanghai Euro-events QFII executive conference that US China facing housing bubbles,
and credit tightening,
Fed underestimate oil price, commodity and housing demand, prices, stocks prices bubble, use core inflation (exclude energy, food) over emphasize cut unemployment rate (which is inflationary) to delay rate hike to June 2004 with 17 rate hikes at 25 base point at each time , however Fed’s ignoring commodities, housing, stock asset prices
bubbles, leave 30 yr mortgage rate at 6 % all time low, despite 17 rate hikes, are the root causes of housing bubble,
and Bernanke leave rate un-change in June last year too soon, to let the stock market speculation Dow JOne up 40 % further drive up housing prices resulted excess wealth gain, excess liquidity, resulte sub-prime problem.
m2 money supply growth soared from 3.5 % June 2006 to July 6.18 2007 and 6.68 % Aug 2007 after 100 billion cash injection, Now 50 base point cut will further inflate the bubble and inflation.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by OSA pioneer Warren Huang – September 19, 2007 at 3:33 pm
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and credit tightening,
Fed underestimate oil price, commodity and housing demand, prices, stocks prices bubble, use core inflation (exclude energy, food) over emphasize cut unemployment rate (which is inflationary) to delay rate hike to June 2004 with 17 rate hikes at 25 base point at each time , however Fed’s ignoring commodities, housing, stock asset prices
bubbles, leave 30 yr mortgage rate at 6 % all time low, despite 17 rate hikes, are the root causes of housing bubble,
and Bernanke leave rate un-change in June last year too soon, to let the stock market speculation Dow JOne up 40 % further drive up housing prices resulted excess wealth gain, excess liquidity, resulte sub-prime problem.
m2 money supply growth soared from 3.5 % June 2006 to July 6.18 2007 and 6.68 % Aug 2007 after 100 billion cash injection, Now 50 base point cut will further inflate the bubble and inflation.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html