osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com Blog

Fed chairman stated Aug 31, 2007 that Fed will do what it need to protect US economy from recession, but will not bail out to protect from the conseqquences of speculation betting on the wrong side of interest rate financial decisions
in housing, credit market.
Proactive structural rational decision analysis is needed for
mortgage credit rating, prepayment, default an recovery
modeling, tracking global monetary policy macroeconomic control impact on interest mortgage rate, housing sales, prices, sub-prime, jumbo loan defaults, CMBS, RMBS, CDO
bond spread and risks early warning

Aug. 31, 2007

Mortgage crisis will spill over into IT industry demand drag Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, Intel big four revenue and sales and unit pricing in the coming holiday season, as already shown on the weakneing retail sales and computer hard ware durable goods order.
It will getting worse early next year, with sales , earning drop by 30 %.
High flier Googl stock price is under pressure.

Aug. 29, 2007

Dr. Warren Huang warned on June 12 Peking university international risk management confernce to global QFIICEO, VP that market analysts speculating Fed rate cuts push US stocks indices making new high in July ignored soaring oil, commodities prices resulted inflation pressure, and housing bubble burst , housing, start, sales plunged 40 % since 2006.
Finally tille US subprime loan default and hedge fund failure
drag Dow Jones down 1200 to 12600 foreced Fed cut discount rate by 0.5 %, Dow JOnes rebound from 12600
to 13350,
However, the bad news on housing price slump drag down
Dow back to 13000,
The hosuing slump will continue, regardless US Fed fund rate cuts , as it will take at leat 6 month for stop the decline
so, investors should prepare for Dow Jones and other indices for another 10 % or ore correction

details can be found on www.osawh.com

Aug. 30, 2007

Investors and mortgage banks,companies must be preapred for more bad news and problems to come as credit tighening in subprime spread into jumbo loan mrotage (above 500000).
These observation are based on my 20 years trcking simulation of last 20 years global central banks monetary policy , macro econmic control impact on inflation, GDP, interest rates, bond spread, commodities, stock prices and the causes, onset, recovery of global financial crisis, stocks, housing price bubble burst, mortgage loan prepayment defaults, recovering, early warning presented to 24 global central banks governeors conferences and June, 2007 Peking University, China’s international financial risk management conference, warning current US housing bubble burst
details can be found on www.osawh.com/ABS.html 
 

US economy is facing inflationary slowdown, despite stock indices and consumer confidence reaching new high in July
Soaring oil, commodities  and housing, equiteis prices, pushed this year CPA up 4.5 % dispite core CPI at 2.4 %,
Housing start, sales plunged 40 % since 2006, housing prices drop 3.2 %, however some high priced area still up 40 % supported by soaring finance, IT stocks.
but Aug market plunge drag finance stocks by 30 %
will lead to high priced jumbo mortgage trouble,
it will well extend inot summer 2008, further drag economy into recession.
Sub-prime default forced Fed cut discount rate by 0.5 %
market expect pass to fed fund rate,
that will not change the picture

OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang sucessfully integrating global macro economic control into industrial sectors, demand, pricess mechanism, tracking , forecast last 20 years global daily oil, commodities and  financial market prices accurately predicted financial, energy crisis, asset bubble bursts and warned 2003 on US , China housing bubbles and  17 rate hikes and current US economic infaltonary slowdown , due to housing, equities wealth
effect, and China raised bank deposit ratio 5 times, fails to
cool housing and equities overheating
However, These overheated markets facing overly extended credit risks, despite global markets following  US Dow Jones making new high

Structural dynamic proactive strategic simulators tracking ,
forecasts months ahead global government, banking, finance, enterprises decisions impact OSA ( Operations Simulations Analysis) challenging the unknown futures

Find out 2006 forecasts on my website

 OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang two master hands controlling global oil prices predicted in Beijin last year that excessive US, China consumer, business demand
for auto, housing, construction material, fuel push oil prices to 70 in Jan. 2006, (heating oil), and 80 in summer
(gasoline, housing construction), as results of wealth
effect inducecd asset bubbles, even 15 rate hikes fail to deal with