Daily Gold, Metal Prices Bubbles Burst , Proactive Structural Simulation /Forecast 2010  OSA  by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering  :US/ China/Global  Debt, Credit, Financial Crisis, exit strategy and Economic Stimulus  impact on Daily Global  Gold  and Metals Futures Prices Mechanism and Gold Fund Performance

 Book your June- Aug Taipei, Hong Kong, Shanghai Proactive Structural European, Debt crisis, global liquidity, exit strategy impact on Asian equities, housing currency, commodities prices 2010 forecast workshops

 Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to  ,  weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, even weak dollar can not save it  

Gold price peaking out in summer 2010 around 1250- 1300  and return to 1200 and below due to 4 year high of dollar against Euro due to debt crisis, China Asian credit tightening against housing pricing bubble, economic slowdown to 7.5 % GDP, US exit strategy, out of tax rebate, housing consumer credit and inflationary control economy to slowdown to below 2.5 % in second half 
Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from Dubai, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugeece , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
Debt crisis in EURO area, strong US 4Q GDP of 5.7 % and 1Q 3.00 %, will driving dollar to new high to 1.20- 1.32 EURO, 1.45-1.52 pound  drag gold from 1250 peak to 1060, oil from 86 to 68, are excessive given US 1.8 trillion budget deficit, and soaring consumer, business debt will drag dollar lower and oil, gold price rebound summer 2010 
2010 oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control,  in 2010 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 17 % in 2010 and US exit strategy fighting inflation in second half 2010 will cut oil demand and  lead to oil price peaking out in 2010
 Oil price will be rebound from 69 to 75 in 1Q 2010, and to 66- 88 in 2 Q , and 3 Q  and 74- 88 in 4 Q
Gasoline price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 200- 250 in 2, 3 Q, 200- 220 in 4Q
heating oil price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 185- 220-  in 2, 3 Q, 210- 250 in 4Q
Natural   price will be rebound from4.5-6.0  in 1 Q,  4.0- 5.0  in 2, 3 Q, 5.0- 6.5 in 4Q
Gold price will be rebound from 1000- 1150 in 1 Q, 1150- 1250 in 2, 3 Q,  1200- 1350  in 4Q
US dollar firm due  to continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK US dollar  in 1 Q, 1.25-1.32- -EURO , 1.18-1.32- EURO in 2 Q, 1.20- 1.30 ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.35 in 4 Q  
and 1.45- 1.50  pound in 1 Q, 2 Q  and 1.41- 1.52- 1.58 in 3, 4 Q
US dollar peaking out in 1 Q, 88- 93 Yen , 78- 90    in 2Q, 3Q,  85- 92  in   4 Q,
 

• Dr. Warren Huang Comment to Wall Street Journal Market beat  May15, 2

 Comment by  Dr. Warren Huang on Yahoo finance.com, Wall Street Journal Market  Blog May 10, 2010
I predicted on Sept 2007 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics, Market Beat blog and this blog that the burst of  US and global super housing prices bubble will repeat 1980 style last through 2010 with double dip recession and stock market rebound and correction due to excessive
stimulus , zero interest and trillions liquidity into the financial and economic system.
We are in the second stage of recession recovery , the global debt bubble burst crisis with public debt over 6- 12 % of GDP, starting with Greece, US, Spain, Portuguese were caused
by easy credits, excessive liquidity resulted debt  and asset ( equities, commodities, housing )bubbles burst.
Global stock markets rally over Euro trillion bail out fades in one day due to US and global stocks investors and economist are overoptimistic about US 1 Q GDP growth at 3.2 %, April PMI at 60, and rebound in housing and retail sales 2010  all due to housing stimulus credit soon to expire in April, and tax rebate resulted consumer spending rebound at 6 % will peaking out after May, Greece, euro area debt crisis drag GDP growth to 1 % , dollar appreciation from 1.5 to 1.26 euro will further slowdown US export growth in the second half  , China credit tightening slow GDP to 8 % by yearend , India, Austria, Korea interest rate hikes will slow down GDP growth , leading to US export decline related  while any further exit strategy, credit tightening, inflationary control, rate hikes will lead to economic growth  double dip to below  2.5 % by yearend . US stocks are extremely overpriced , subject to 20- 30 % correction
Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P stock index forecasts
Dow Junes will be return to consolidate in 9000- 9900 soon , NASDAQ test 2000- 2200, S&P test 1000- 1100 , China Shanghai A index 2250- 2500, Shenzhen A index 9000- 10000, Hang Seng Index 16000- 28000, Singapore st. index 2600- 2800, Taiwan Index 6600- 7200, London Financial Times 4800- 5000, Dax index 5000- 5500 and may test in second financial , recession crisis double dip triggered by Greek and PIGS countries debt crisis, China/Asian slowdown
Details on www.osawh.com/centmaf.htm www.osawh.com/dowwp.htm www.osawh.com/debtbub.htm  

US , EURO, UK  and Japan just entering phase II housing, credit, financial, crisis, recessibn, continuation of phase I, casused by housing bubble burst resulted subprime, mortgage crisis spreading into credit, financial crisis and onset of recession, with housing prices plunged 15 %, resulted equties price bubble burst, stock indices plunged 50 %,( Dow Jones plunged from 14300 to 7300, GDP plunged below -3 %, SP500 from 1500 to 750) Dax from 8500 to 4200, FT from 8000 to 4000),drag oil,  commodities , metal bubble burst 50- 70 %
The phase II banking financial crisis is caused by prolonged housing market slump drag economy  into deep recession,housing prices plunged 25 % and GDP plunge 5 % this year, Japan GDP plunged 12 %, Nikkei index plunged from 19000 to 7300, Dow Jones will plunge to 6000 this year further drag banking and nonbanking into all out deep liquidity, d credit,default , financial crisis and deeper recession, delay the credit market recovery for
highly risky, high yield junk bond leveraged finance and acquisition housing ( will be following housing market slump and recession)

comment to Asian leverage finance, acquisition conference, Feb. 17, 2009, Hong Kong, Greensburg of Goldman Sach on credit market recovery learning process

 on 2009 China/US/Global Monetary, Economic, Stimulus,  Fiscal Bail Out Impact on Housing, Banking, Financial Crisis, Recession Daily Financial Markets Asset Prices, Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short  strategy lectures
  
  by Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers on financial crisis, recession strategy  Feb, March Hong Kong, Pudong QFII/QDII summit  conferences 2009
 Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime crisis on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
 Phase II Global deep recession impact on housing price slump, banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and defaults for
 Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by EuromoneyTrillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy for
 China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
             Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
 China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis,  Recession,, Infrastructure Stimulus Impact on  Economy, Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
 Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
  by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 24- 25, 2009
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/riskm.html

From my proactive structural simulation of monetary, fiscal, economic policy impact on last 30 years global macroeconomic cycles, interest rate, currency, commodities, stock indicex, housing and derivative asset prices bubbles burst, mortgage, credit, financial crisis.
Housing slump, mortgage, financial crisis will continue drag US into deep recession  through early 2009drag major stock indices into recession lows
Dow Jones testing  6000-7000-  NASDAQ testing  1150- 1250 S&P 500 testing  600-700 details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
www.osawh.com/riskm.html

,

Dr. Huang  warned since Sept 2007 again that global central banks, economist,market analysts and banking, finance company have misled the investors again that rate cuts, economic stimulus, rescue package will stop housing and stock market price slump resulted mortage  , credit, financial crisis and recession.
Again they drag into 1980, 1990 style double inflationary recession and super housing bubble burst due to slump
in consumer and busiess spending,soaring jobless rate due resulted by
trillions housing and stock market wealth loss will continue into 2009 despite 7000 billion rescue package and trillion dollar mortgage bail out of bad assets, MBS.
Dow Jones will plunge below 7000  soon
while S&P will test 600- 700 NASDAQ test  1100- 1250- 1750  early 2009
details on
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
www.osawh.com/macro.html  www.osawh.com/NASDAQ.htm
 

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog Dec. 31 2008 at 2:43 am

Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008
 I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary recession will drag banking share further.
 SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking sare performance
 details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/recession.html  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm 
 

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 17, 2:30 pm

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