Archive for February, 2008

Double Dip Recession Dr. Warren Huang

Friday, February 8th, 2008
Based on my 30 years tracking, simulation of last 30 years global economic cycles, asset prices bubble burst,I warned on this blog last Sept that aggressive Fed rate cuts can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer resulted recesion, US, global stcck market bear market recession, and drag dollar lower, pushed oil, commodities prices and infaltion higher, with risks of 1980 style double dip recession during 2008-2009.  detaisl can be found on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real time Economic Blog- February 8, 2008 at 3:27 pm

Trillion dollar recession hedge Dr. Warren Huang

Friday, February 8th, 2008
I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housinng, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 % Any Hedge fund follow my advixe could make trillion dollar in 2007. details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar. 6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008 www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang - February 8, 2008 at 11:28 am

US recession forecast Dr. Warren Huang

Friday, February 8th, 2008
Based on my 30 years global ecoomic cycles, asset price bubble burst, I warned on this blog last Sept that US housing market price slump will drag US into recesion and bear market correction. 2008 till summer, despite any rate cuts. We are just at the very early stage of recession, as Dow Jones index has not feel any pain, sstill stay in bull market rally. Economists, analysts are overoptimistic about this recession, it has not seen the worst, whrer we may have -2 % GDP in the second quarter and 1.5 % in the second half.   detaisl can be found on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
Comment by Warren Huang - February 7, 2008 at 11:57 pm

ECB monetary Policy Dr. Warren Huang

Friday, February 8th, 2008
ECB doing the right thing for EMU not following Benanke rate cuts and stimulus to heat the inflation up, risks inflationary slowdown. at time oil, commodities price at record peak and CPI inflation at 3.2 %. details can be found on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm and www.oswh.com/EURO.html
Comment by Warren Huang - February 7, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 18, 2007
ECB 500 billion loan to commercial banks number looks big, but small comparing to 100 trillion derivatives and CDO.While facing US and global housing markets slump continue into next summer. As I pointed out that any Fed, central banks action, injection of money into the system will not stop housing slump, stimulate credit demand for supporting the housing prices which are not sustainable. Beside US housing bubble burst, UK, even China, and other Asian countries will join the crowddetails can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang - December 18, 2007 at 12:47 pm

Recession impact on Markets Dr. Warren Huang

Thursday, February 7th, 2008
I warned on  Wall Street Journal Market Beat blog last Sept that based on my 30 years global asset prices bubbles burst and economic cycles tracking that this US housing price slump will continue into summer 2008, grad consumer confidence to 60-80, ISM index to 40- 44, and US into recession, stock market into bear market correction. Now. most of our economic indicators pointing recession, exceppt Dow Jones index still struggling by Beneake rate cuts, stay in bull trend territory, only down 15 %. With bnaking, finance, housing, IT, retail shares already in bear correction, all down 30- 50 %, How can Dow Jones stay above 12000 ? details can be found on www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang - February 7, 2008 at 2:19 pm

Recession impact on Markets Dr. Warren Huang

Thursday, February 7th, 2008
I warned on  Wall Street Journal Market Beat blog last Sept that based on my 30 years global asset prices bubbles burst and economic cycles tracking that this US housing price slump will continue into summer 2008, grad consumer confidence to 60-80, ISM index to 40- 44, and US into recession, stock market into bear market correction. Now. most of our economic indicators pointing recession, exceppt Dow Jones index still struggling by Beneake rate cuts, stay in bull trend territory, only down 15 %. With bnaking, finance, housing, IT, retail shares already in bear correction, all down 30- 50 %, How can Dow Jones stay above 12000 ? details can be found on www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang - February 7, 2008 at 2:19 pm

IT asset bubble burst Dr. Warren Huang

Thursday, February 7th, 2008
I warned on this blog last Sept. that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008, drag consumer, business demand into recession, banking, finance,housing, retail, IT sectors facing correction, with shares plunge 30- 50 %.( AAPL, GOOG). Market analyst still bullish even it share plunged 30 % from 35 to 24., ignoring 2000 IT bubble burst and M/A merger like Microsoft-Yahoo, all facing trouble ahead. details can be found on www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang - February 7, 2008 at 12:21 pm

rate cuts and market bottom? Dr. Warren Huang

Wednesday, February 6th, 2008
I warned last Sept that financial and homebuilding sectors will be drag into severe recession bear market correction despite rate cuts, with prices plunged 50- 70 % by continued housng price slump till summer 2008. Today’s service sector index plunged into 44 of deep recession. Recent rally are just bear market selling into the rally, will be heading for new lows in the month ahead. Current recession is close to 1980 style inflationary recession, with excessive rate cuts, and stimulus may lead to double dip ( recesion) we will be facing another housing bubble bursts by rate hike later to fight inflation. Unrelibale rating lead to current subprime and morgage crisis.Incentive is not the major causses of rating result which fail CDO, MBS. It is the out of dated rating methods (as Greenspan indicated using 30 year method) rater and market analyst provided investor with optimistic rating on ENRON, CFC, (give investment grade till before bankruptcy annoucement). Market conscienious Fed may cuts the rates to 2.5 % or below in the next bear market correction, Dow Jones plunge below 11,000. But Fed will finally give up on support the stock, as economy testing the recession bottom this summer.  details can be found on www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm in spring, as Dow Jones
Comment by Warren Huang - February 5, 2008 at 8:52 pm  
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Financial, homebuliding bear rally Dr. Warren Huang

Tuesday, February 5th, 2008
I warned on this blog last Sept that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008, despite rate cuts, banking, finance, homebuliding enetring deep recession, bear market correction, suffered by deep loss, with share prices plunge 50- 70 %. Recent speculation on rate cuts on banks, home buliding by SWF and Bank of America will face bear market rally and continued correction, loss all their recent gains and heading for new lows. XHB will give up its gains heading below 15 in the months ahead, despite rate cuts and stimulus packge will not able to stop housing prices slump cutting into 10 months unsold home invenetory.  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street journal Market Beat  February 5, 2008 at 3:36 pm

US service sectors enrting recession Dr. Warren Huang

Tuesday, February 5th, 2008
After all the trouble in mortgage crisis, construction and housing price slump, endless billions bank write down, Analyst still expect service sectors stay above 50 with continued expansion? I warned last Sept on this blog that Fed first rate cut that US economy will be drag into recession by banking, housing constrcution slump till 2008 summer despite any rate cuts, ISM index should test 40,now it plunged from 54 to 44 just reflect current state of this sector. We should not expect rate cuts, stimulus to stop housing prices and sales slump till summer. The ISM index will test 40 as stock market entering bear market correction. However, rate cuts will give some support for consmuer, business demand and oil, commodities, inflationary pressure, drag us into 1980 style inflationaary recession, and facing rate hikes in the second half. So dollar is at the cross road, supported by inflation expectation and EURO, Japan slowdown, rate cuts. EURO will be peaking out at 1.45- 1.55, Yen at 103- 108. It is prematures for dollar specualtion detials can be found on www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/currency.html and www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Mrket Beat Blog - February 5, 2008 at 2:22 pm