I warned last Sept that financial and homebuilding sectors will be drag into severe recession bear market correction despite rate cuts, with prices plunged 50- 70 % by continued housng price slump till summer 2008.
Today’s service sector index plunged into 44 of deep recession.
Recent rally are just bear market selling into the rally,
will be heading for new lows in the month ahead.
Current recession is close to 1980 style inflationary recession, with excessive rate cuts, and stimulus may lead to double dip ( recesion)
we will be facing another housing bubble bursts by rate hike later to fight inflation.
Unrelibale rating lead to current subprime and morgage crisis.Incentive is not the major causses of rating result which fail CDO, MBS.
It is the out of dated rating methods (as Greenspan indicated using 30 year method)
rater and market analyst provided investor with optimistic rating on ENRON, CFC, (give investment grade till before bankruptcy
annoucement).
Market conscienious Fed may cuts the rates to 2.5 % or below in the next bear market correction, Dow Jones plunge below 11,000.
But Fed will finally give up on support the stock, as economy testing the recession bottom this summer.
Comment byWarren Huang - February 5, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Post a Comment
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, February 6th, 2008 at 3:50 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Today’s service sector index plunged into 44 of deep recession.
Recent rally are just bear market selling into the rally,
will be heading for new lows in the month ahead.
Current recession is close to 1980 style inflationary recession, with excessive rate cuts, and stimulus may lead to double dip ( recesion)
we will be facing another housing bubble bursts by rate hike later to fight inflation.
Unrelibale rating lead to current subprime and morgage crisis.Incentive is not the major causses of rating result which fail CDO, MBS.
It is the out of dated rating methods (as Greenspan indicated using 30 year method)
rater and market analyst provided investor with optimistic rating on ENRON, CFC, (give investment grade till before bankruptcy
annoucement).
Market conscienious Fed may cuts the rates to 2.5 % or below in the next bear market correction, Dow Jones plunge below 11,000.
But Fed will finally give up on support the stock, as economy testing the recession bottom this summer.
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
and
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
in spring, as Dow Jones