OSA Market Blog, Market ovehested, Oil peaking out 130 Dr. Warren Huang

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May 6, 2008  and  osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ blog1 at 6:25 pm
The market is repeating its last August speculative mood, chasing on banking, high tech stocks push Dow to 14200 new high, this time over 13000, trying to break downtrend., despite housing markets slump, soaring oil, commodities prices, job cuts and banking, finance mounting loss in write down. The market optimism built on shaking ground, betting on housing, banking, high tech sectors rebound, will lead to another trillion dollar loss. Goldman’s prediction of 200 dollar oil price is against market supply demand fundamental mechanism. Oil price bubble will burst before 200.consumers just can not afford to pay for that price. We will have long, deep inflationary recession with us, even stimulus package rate cuts will not be able to achieve sustainable recovery this year. We have already seen the worst of dollar weakness at almost the end of current rate cuts cycle, the soaring oil price will push inflation higher, all will give support to US dollar. Gasoline and heating oil are still the major demand driving force for oil price. It is the spring, summer gasoline demand drive the oil price from 80 to 120. stronger dollar supported by inflation fighting will drag oil price lower, current oil price spike is expectation of stimulus package boost jet fuel and gasoline demand this summer. We may see oil price breakout to 130, not much beyond that. details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html www.osawh.coom/currency.html

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.