Identify, control of asset bubble Dr. Warren Huang

 

Comment by Warren Huang - May 15, 2008 at 2:03 pm on How to identify  and control asset bubble on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog

From my tracking, proactive structural simulation of last 30 years global energy, housing, IT bubbles burst results shown that all asst bubble formation can be idnetified 3 years ahead, I warned on Asian/China finance, capital market conference, Singapore, Shangahi, Beijin, Nov. 2003 that US /China housing bubble overheating, facing rate hike summer 2004, US and China central banks did rate rate to cool housing, Fed cut money supply growth from 6 % to 2005 3.5 %, after Greenspan 17 raise rates, housing sales and price start peaking out in 2006.  However, after Bernanke stop rate hike in 2006, money supply growth up from 4 % to 6.5 % in 2007, excessive liquidity resulted subprime mortgage crisis, If Fed continue adapt tight money policy credit rating through 2007, it will stop many questionable sub prime loans. despite housing bubble may burst, we will be already recovered now. Fed should not yield to political pressure in dealing with asset bubble, same was true for 1996- 1998 IT stock prices bubble identification and continue credit tightening ing. will avoided 2000 bubble burst ( Nasdaq would just up to 3000 not 5100, much small bubble easier to deal with. China follow US Fed, enjoyed macroeconomic and housing market soft landing in 2005 inflation down to 1.2 % after China Peoples Bank reduce the money supply growth from 24 to 13, housing price was up 200 % in 2004, plunged 30 % in 2005, stock prices plunged from 2000 to 1100. However, after CPBC follow US FEd stop credit tightening, money supply explode from 15 % to 20 %, stock market soared from 1400 to 6300, housing prices up 300 % again in 2007. and forced CPBC 6 times rate hike, 14 time raise bank deposit ratio to remove excessive liquidity from housing stock markets wealth gain, stock prices plunged 50 %, housing prices still up 13 %, despite housing sales slump, I warned on this blog last Sept that US housing price slump continue into this summer despite aggressive rate cuts, drag economy into recession, stock market bear correction. We still have one third cities housing prices continue growing bubble, making bigger bubbles despite housing sales slump and doubling foreclosure , mounting job cuts, slump inn consumer confidence.This proactive, structural US national and regional housing prices, and mortgage defaults simulation forecast years, ahead national , regional housing price. So, the answer is yes, Asset prices can be identified and asset price bursts, credit, financial crisis can be avoided by a decisive , independent central bank applying proactive structural decision simulators and predictive monetary policy, economic, fiscal policy control the bubble growth, before it getting too big. Theseresults have been presented to 12 countries central bank governors, risk management conferences last 12 years, covering the causes, oset, dpread, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis and asset prices bubble burst. details on www.osawh.com/riskm.html www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/centmaf.html www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

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