Risks in speculation over Credit crisis, recession, oil dollar Dr. Warren Huang

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- May 17, 2008 at 1:32pm Stock market bull are struggling to make sustainable rally bsed on oil prices plunge, at today oil making 128 new high, it try to use Benanke, Paulson optimimic view on credit crisis and second half economic recovery, the dollar rebound to soaring oil, inflation related rate hike support. Ignoring miserable back ground, consumer confidence sank to 1980 deep recession low, and houjsing prices and single family start continue making new low, despite rebound in apartment building, on top of 10  month unsold inventory Market bulls are getting irrational , emotional in high speculative mood repeating last summer, use any piece good news from M/A, IPO, oil, dollar, Fed, to discard all bad news. hope we do not repeat lasst summer betting on the wrong direction. Do not expect raise oil production, strength of dollar to drag down the crude oil price in peak summer demand. From my 30 years tracking of global crude oil price price mechanism, dollar and demand carry the same weight on price movement, and even dollar upword potential is limited, given prolong, US housing market sump, Fed will not be able to raise too much rate to cool of the inflation, to kill the housing markets. so, oil still have upword potential driven by stimulus package support spending. details on  www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/currency.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

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