Archive for June, 2010

European Debt crisis, China credit tightening, global exit strategy impact on currency, gold, oil prices

Monday, June 7th, 2010

Daily Gold, Metal Prices Bubbles Burst , Proactive Structural Simulation /Forecast 2010  OSA  by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering  :US/ China/Global  Debt, Credit, Financial Crisis, exit strategy and Economic Stimulus  impact on Daily Global  Gold  and Metals Futures Prices Mechanism and Gold Fund Performance

 Book your June- Aug Taipei, Hong Kong, Shanghai Proactive Structural European, Debt crisis, global liquidity, exit strategy impact on Asian equities, housing currency, commodities prices 2010 forecast workshops

 Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to  ,  weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, even weak dollar can not save it  

Gold price peaking out in summer 2010 around 1250- 1300  and return to 1200 and below due to 4 year high of dollar against Euro due to debt crisis, China Asian credit tightening against housing pricing bubble, economic slowdown to 7.5 % GDP, US exit strategy, out of tax rebate, housing consumer credit and inflationary control economy to slowdown to below 2.5 % in second half  Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from Dubai, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugeece , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy. Debt crisis in EURO area, strong US 4Q GDP of 5.7 % and 1Q 3.00 %, will driving dollar to new high to 1.20- 1.32 EURO, 1.45-1.52 pound  drag gold from 1250 peak to 1060, oil from 86 to 68, are excessive given US 1.8 trillion budget deficit, and soaring consumer, business debt will drag dollar lower and oil, gold price rebound summer 2010  2010 oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast: China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control,  in 2010 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 17 % in 2010 and US exit strategy fighting inflation in second half 2010 will cut oil demand and  lead to oil price peaking out in 2010  Oil price will be rebound from 69 to 75 in 1Q 2010, and to 66- 88 in 2 Q , and 3 Q  and 74- 88 in 4 Q Gasoline price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 200- 250 in 2, 3 Q, 200- 220 in 4Q heating oil price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 185- 220-  in 2, 3 Q, 210- 250 in 4Q Natural   price will be rebound from4.5-6.0  in 1 Q,  4.0- 5.0  in 2, 3 Q, 5.0- 6.5 in 4Q Gold price will be rebound from 1000- 1150 in 1 Q, 1150- 1250 in 2, 3 Q,  1200- 1350  in 4Q US dollar firm due  to continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK US dollar  in 1 Q, 1.25-1.32- -EURO , 1.18-1.32- EURO in 2 Q, 1.20- 1.30 ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.35 in 4 Q   and 1.45- 1.50  pound in 1 Q, 2 Q  and 1.41- 1.52- 1.58 in 3, 4 Q US dollar peaking out in 1 Q, 88- 93 Yen , 78- 90    in 2Q, 3Q,  85- 92  in   4 Q,  

  • Dr. Warren Huang Comment to Wall Street Journal Market beat  May15, 2

European Debt crisis, China credit tightening,Global exit strategy impact on global stocks

Monday, June 7th, 2010


 Comment by  Dr. Warren Huang on Yahoo, Wall Street Journal Market  Blog May 10, 2010 I predicted on Sept 2007 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics, Market Beat blog and this blog that the burst of  US and global super housing prices bubble will repeat 1980 style last through 2010 with double dip recession and stock market rebound and correction due to excessive stimulus , zero interest and trillions liquidity into the financial and economic system. We are in the second stage of recession recovery , the global debt bubble burst crisis with public debt over 6- 12 % of GDP, starting with Greece, US, Spain, Portuguese were caused by easy credits, excessive liquidity resulted debt  and asset ( equities, commodities, housing )bubbles burst. Global stock markets rally over Euro trillion bail out fades in one day due to US and global stocks investors and economist are overoptimistic about US 1 Q GDP growth at 3.2 %, April PMI at 60, and rebound in housing and retail sales 2010  all due to housing stimulus credit soon to expire in April, and tax rebate resulted consumer spending rebound at 6 % will peaking out after May, Greece, euro area debt crisis drag GDP growth to 1 % , dollar appreciation from 1.5 to 1.26 euro will further slowdown US export growth in the second half  , China credit tightening slow GDP to 8 % by yearend , India, Austria, Korea interest rate hikes will slow down GDP growth , leading to US export decline related  while any further exit strategy, credit tightening, inflationary control, rate hikes will lead to economic growth  double dip to below  2.5 % by yearend . US stocks are extremely overpriced , subject to 20- 30 % correction Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P stock index forecasts Dow Junes will be return to consolidate in 9000- 9900 soon , NASDAQ test 2000- 2200, S&P test 1000- 1100 , China Shanghai A index 2250- 2500, Shenzhen A index 9000- 10000, Hang Seng Index 16000- 28000, Singapore st. index 2600- 2800, Taiwan Index 6600- 7200, London Financial Times 4800- 5000, Dax index 5000- 5500 and may test in second financial , recession crisis double dip triggered by Greek and PIGS countries debt crisis, China/Asian slowdown Details on