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April retail sales has been distorted by advance payment for low end consumer goods (below 400 dollars out of
gasoline, food payment left from 600 stimulus package for
rebate check, as already shown on surge on March credit card).
While the big tocket above 400 like computer, automobile
plunged due to recesion impact.
This one time spike only help second quarter barely escape recession.
The economy will follow housing price slump and job cuts into inflationary recession again.
I predicted last Sept on this blog that Fed aggressive rate cuts will drag dollar, driving oil to 130, commodities price more than double and soaring inflation, 10 year bond yield break 4 % this summer, eventualy stock market bear correction.
I have speaking to dozens US and European structural finance finance and central banks governors conferences since 1999 and 2003 that ABS na MBS, CDO based on statistical asset priceing and credit default rating will lead to betting on the wrong side of interest rateas and trillion dollar loss in US and European housing bubble burst and mortgage, credit crisis.
I warned on Deal journal few days ago,that HP csh buy out low end low profit margin data processing company EDS to compete with IBM will not work. It need high end strategic BPO strategic supply demand chain to compete with Oracle, IBM.
HP stocks plunge drag Dow down 40 points.
I also warned last week
market speculators use dollar
rebound, and oil price setback to drive up Dow is not sustaonable, due to oil price will keep making new high due to rebate check and consumer peak summer demand,
and dollar will be traded in narrow range due to US housing market slump.
Today oil soared to new high, Dow lose ground even Dollar
up to 104 Yen
details on
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/STouts.html
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1 daily blog

Stock market plunged 206, finally give up its recent gain on banking, finance, IT shares despite mounting write down and loss in mortgage loan default.
It is not because of oil price soared to record level ( It is used to it , even gain on oil shares performances.)
Bullish speculators speculate the worst of credit crisis is over, in led to over 30 -50 % gain in these share, will loss most of its gain in a bear trap, as housing price slump will continue, soaring oil, commodities price, foreclosure, job cut drag consumer confidence to deep recession level. Betting on the interest rate and banking, finance, housing market rebound will repeat last summer trillion dollar loss, facing double dip inflationary recession in Feds ending rate cuts cycle.10 year bond yield will repeat last summer break 4 %
It is premature to speculate ECB will cuts rate before summer at current oil, commodities prices and inflation level.
So dollar has limited speculation room as rising oil price, inflation. But Fed is not to switch to rate hike cycle before housing price slump ends.
details on www.osawh.coom/Fedcrisab.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/riskm.html